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Старый 07.10.2015, 13:17   #81 (permalink)
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Date : 7th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 7th October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

It appears the FX market continues to play down a U.S. Fed rate hike this year. The EUR and the USD have been falling behind emerging and commodity related currencies as markets shift to a risk-on mode. This could be because of hopes that more stimulus will be generated by Europe and Asian policy makers. Technically, the EURUSD remains range bound with current price now testing the 1.1280 minor resistance. In the immediate short term, selling pressure may emerge near the 1.1280 area, with short traders possibly seeking a 1.11 target. However, a clean break over the 1.1280 resistance may entice the EURUSD bulls to commit to further long positions for a target just below the 1.1460′s.

Asian stock markets advanced with the Hang Seng outperforming and opening the way for further gains in Europe. Stock markets are benefiting from the recent weak data that pushes the odds that global monetary policy will remain accommodative for longer, therefore, cheap U.S. dollars should continue to flood the market with companies and investors betting on consumption to fuel corporate earnings.

The BoJ kept policy on hold. In Europe, the BoE starts its 2-day meeting and it’s widely expected that any change in policy is on hold for now. The U.S. and German production fell in August. This data of disappointing manufacturing orders fits in well with the markets view that the ECB could be moving towards further QE.

In the U.S. solid gains in consumption and business spending has been on the upswing, and inflation is still below the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed’s Williams said that he does not believe that there’s been a fundamental shift in the economic outlook, and he remains bullish on China.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR is weaker against the majors as Europe looks to increase QE and stimulate growth after a softer GDP number for the quarter. The USD is slightly lower as the impact on the Fed rate-hike decision is more uncertainty and markets will increase in volatility with a growing feeling that the Fed has miscalculated. The GBP is not moving much, although downward bias may prevail now that the U.K. economy continues to look a little softer and expectations are that the BoE will not tighten monetary policy prior to a move by the Fed. The NZD is broadly higher as commodity markets hold ground, with Gold and Copper holding on to recent gains.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Industrial Production: dropped 1.2% m/m. Initial expectations had been for a modest rise over the month, but with much weaker than expected orders numbers yesterday, a correction had always looked likely. Jul was revised up to 1.2% m/m from 0.7% m/m reported initially, but the three months trend rate nevertheless fell into negative territory.

• GBP Manufacturing Production: 0.5% actual came in higher by 0.10% than the 0.40% forecasted number.

• JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement: The BoJ announced unchanged policy, as was widely expected, maintaining bond and other asset purchases (QQE) at an annual rate of Y80 tln. In the statement the central bank remarked that the economy had “continued to recover moderately, although exports and production are affected by the slowdown in emerging economies.”

• CAD Building Permits: Building permit values are expected to rise 1.0% in August after the 0.6% dip in July. The Bank of Canada has assured that Canada is not at risk of a national housing bubble and that the soft landing remains in play.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 07.10.2015 в 15:11.
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Старый 08.10.2015, 12:02   #82 (permalink)
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Date : 8th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 8th October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

The FX markets have been relatively quiet and global equity markets trading mixed over the last 24 hours. U.S. and European markets were up yesterday, while Asian markets traded mostly lower in overnight trading in the wake of a week long holiday in China. Commodity prices have been correcting after yesterday’s price rally, this has seen the AUD and other commodity dependent currencies getting whipped as commodity prices adjust to the possibility of a further delay in the U.S. Fed rate hike.

The EURUSD is trading higher in European trading having now cleared the 1.1280 resistance level, as the IMF said that the U.S. Fed should wait for more signs to raise rates, with IMF’s Vinals saying that “wage and price pressures don’t justify a Fed rate rise and that waiting a couple of months is less risky than a premature lift-off.” The IMF also said that ECB policies are gaining traction while also warning that deleveraging in China will require great care and that it sees a “heightened” chance of global asset-market disruption.

For the moment, EURUSD daily traders will focus on whether today’s resistance (1.1280) in European session price break will hold and close above (1.1280), or if it will leave a less meaningful shadow for the day and close below (1.1280). EURUSD bulls will prefer to see a clean close on price above 1.1280 in order to keep alive any attempt to carry the pair towards the 1.1460 next key resistance level. I would also like to point out again that current price is still holding well above the daily 10,50 SMA bull cross event that accrued in mid August. This bullish moving average double crossover observation technically adds to support the case for EURUSD long holders, at least in the short term.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR traded sharply higher in European trade as a technical upward break of the 1.1280 recent resistance area has been penetrated. The EUR has been moving upward even through recent German and France economic data have been on the weak side with a dive in German exports and an unsuspected dip in French business sentiment.

The AUD trades lower as expectations of continued weak growth in China and the rest of Asia point to softer growth in Australia. The CHF is higher across the board against the majors as the CHF is still the best risk off place in the market. The USD and the GBP are mostly softer ahead of the U.S. FOMC minutes and the BoE Governors speech later today.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German Trade Balance: German trade surplus narrowed as exports fell. Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 19.5 bln in August, down from EUR 22.4 bln in the previous month. Exports dropped 5.2% m/m, after a 2.2% m/m rise in July. The fact that imports also dropped a strong 3.1% m/m, suggests that like in manufacturing data, the timing of the school holidays in the different German states may have distorted the numbers somewhat, but the fact that the drop in exports far outstrips the decline in imports and is in fact the strongest declines since the recession days of 2009 is worrying and ties in with other data showing a slowdown in activity. Exports were still up 6.6% y/y in the first eight months of the year, however, and the accumulated trade surplus widened to EUR 163.9 bln from EUR 136.0 bln in the first eight months of 2013.

• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision: It is widely expected that the Bank of England will keep policy on hold; the focus today will be on the minutes.

• CAD Housing Starts: Starts are expected to slow to a 205k unit rate in September (median 204.0k) from the 216.9k pace in August. A pull-back in multiple starts after the 19.5% surge in August is expected to slow total starts in September. Forecast Risk: The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. Expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity.

• USD FOMC Minutes: From Sept 16-17 meeting that a big focus given surprise rate lift-off delay. So far, the markets view that conditions for hike are approaching, but not there yet.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 08.10.2015 в 12:44.
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Старый 09.10.2015, 14:17   #83 (permalink)
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Date : 9th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

There was no surprise in the FOMC minutes from the mid-September meeting with “several members” worried that downside risk to growth and inflation have increased due to uncertainties about the global economy. The fact that the FOMC members are downbeat adds to the odds that the FED will delay to at least year end. The U.S. Dow Jones finished with a solid higher close in the wake of the FOMC minutes, while Asian stock markets have rallied across in overnight trading, and most commodity prices are gaining. Crude Oil is trading above $50 for the first time since late July, and may aid support to commodity linked currencies.

Previous EURUSD price action closed just below the key resistance (1.1280), leaving a shadow on the daily. However, the EUR bulls seem to be gaining control of the market this morning as price has taken out yesterday’s high (1.1327) and now looks set to continue a push higher with short term bullish momentum now in play. EURUSD bulls should remain cautious of the failed upward break of the one year moving average August high near the 1.17’s, which supports that the longer term trend on the EUR remains to the downside.

EURUSD daily traders should understand that the pair still lacks direction over the very short term and price seems to be attempting to trace out a trading range between the 1.1090 – 1.1460 range.

The Bank of England left policy unchanged as expected; however, the meeting minutes sounded more to the side of holding current policy for an extended period as the BoE pointed out downside risks, all suggesting that the BoE is in no hurry to raise rates.



Currency Movers Charts

The EUR is trading higher against the majors in the wake of positive French production numbers, which normally is not a EUR mover, but today catches a USD bearish market following yesterday’s publication of the Fed’s minutes to its most recent policy meeting. The USD, JPY and the GBP are all suffering losses as commodity currencies trade stronger fueled by a general risk on investor sentiment after the FOMC minutes indicated an increased in the odds that the FED will delay any upward move in interest rates. The AUD , CAD and NZD are all benefiting from the stronger commodity markets and the fact that US Crude Oil is trading at its highest levels not seen since late July.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Italian Industrial Production: Dropped -0.5% m/m in August, after 1.1% m/m in July. The work day adjusted y/y rate fell back to 1.0% from 2.8% and output actually stagnated in the three months to August, which will raise renewed concerns about the health of the Italian economy.

• EUR French Industrial Production: Better than expected with manufacturing up 2.2% m/m and overall production 1.6% m/m. July data were revised down, but the numbers are nevertheless encouraging. The positive numbers tie in with the improvement in French PMI readings recently and confirm that the cyclical recovery in the Eurozone has finally reached France.

• USD Wholesale Inventories: August wholesale trade data is out later today and should reveal a 0.3% (median unchanged) decline for sales while inventories remain unchanged for the month. This would follow respective July figures of -0.3% for sales and -0.1% for inventories.

• CAD Bank of Canada Business Outlook: Due out later today, is expected to improve to 10.0 in Q3 from 8.0 in Q2 and a multi-year low 4.0 in Q1. An expected rebound in Q3 GDP following the declines in Q1 and Q2 is expected to lift sentiment.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 09.10.2015 в 16:10.
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Старый 13.10.2015, 12:52   #84 (permalink)
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Date : 13th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

With markets trading in quiet mode yesterday because of the bank Holiday’s in the U.S., Canada and Japan traders should expect to see price action pick up as traders get back to work after the extended weekend.

EURUSD daily still remains contained within the 1.1460 (Top) 1.1090 (Bottom) range, with current price now trading comfortability above the key support (1.1280) with the pair not showing any signs of leaving a new lower top from the 1.17 August high. I see upside potential in the immediate short term to be limited to around the 1.1440 – 1.1460 levels, before selling pressure emerges, however, since bullish price momentum still remains present there remains the risk for sellers of a price extension towards the 1.15 – 1.1530′s.

Asian stock markets are mostly lower in overnight trade as weaker than expected trade data out of China put pressure on commodities and overall market sentiment. The drop in Chinese imports added to the fall in oil prices yesterday. U.K. BRC retail sales came in much stronger than expected.

The USD traded weaker in quiet Monday trading with fresh losses against the EUR, AUD and NZD, while the JPY is still flat. The general weakness in the USD is a continuation of selling seen in the wake of last week’s release of the FOMC minutes, which have seen the odds for a Fed rate hike expectations shifted towards year end or even further out.



Currency Movers Charts

The USD over the last 5 day trading sessions has been to the downside sparked by the latest release of the FOMC meeting minutes which have seen the odds for a Fed rate lift-off by year-end lengthen. The GBP is lower across the board in the wake of lower trade balance that fell in August to GBP-3.27 billion from GBP-4.4 billion in July while the forecast was for a GBP 2.5 billion deficit. The AUD has been outperforming as higher commodity prices and hopes of more prolonged stays of ultra-accommodative monetary policy at the Fed and BoE give AUD buyers reason to support price.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German HICP: Was confirmed at -0.2% y/y, national CPI at 0.0% y/y, as expected. The breakdown, which was released for the first time, confirmed that lower energy prices are the main reason behind the negative headline rate. Prices for heating oil were down 27.9% y/y in September and petrol prices dropped 13.8% y/y. Excluding both household energy and petrol the annual rate stood at 1.1% y/y, still below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability but far above the headline rate and the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very small, which means the ECB won’t need to react to the drop in headline inflation numbers, even if they keep easing speculation alive.

• GBP Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell by 0.1%, compared to no change (0.0%) in the year to August 2015. A smaller than usual rise in clothing prices and falling motor fuel prices were the main contributors to the fall in the rate. The rate of inflation has been at or around 0.0% for most of 2015.

• EUR German ZEW Survey: Investor sentiment fell more than expected to 1.9 from 12.1. Market sentiment is swinging between concerns about the global growth outlook and hopes that monetary stimulus will remain in place for longer than previously thought and that this will prevent a substantial deceleration in growth.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 13.10.2015 в 13:15.
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Старый 16.10.2015, 15:02   #85 (permalink)
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Date : 16th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 15th October 2015.



AUDUSD, Daily

As expected the pair rallied from the 0.6938 support. AUD has now been trading at resistance and just recently failed to stay above the daily Bollinger Bands. The 100 period SMA has been limiting the upside in the occasions while the September pivotal high at 0.7280 has been supporting price yesterday and today. Price is now trading at 0.7263. A close below 0.7266 would make yesterday’s candle a pivot and a lower high. This looks likely. A break below 0.7200 would open a way to the 0.7020 support. If 0.7200 fails to support price look for reversals in 0.6938 – 0.7020 range for long trades and 0.7344 - 0.7382 for short trades.




AUDJPY, Daily

With AUDUSD rallying the AUDJPY moved higher as well. The pair hit resistance at 88.65 and reversed after trading outside the Bollinger bands. Now price action is taking place inside Bollinger Bands and the pair is fluctuating near 50 day simple moving average. There is some support at 86.08 but the 4h chart reveals a lower high after price reacted lower from a 30 period SMA and increases the chances price will break below this support. This would make the 82.88 – 84.29 a reasonable target level. Look for bullish reversals inside this range while 87.80 – 88.65 is a range for bearish reversals.




MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

Bund futures are outperforming and yields heading south, while Eurozone spreads narrow, as weak inflation numbers bolster hopes of further ECB easing. Pressure on Draghi to at least set the stage for a widening or extension of the QE program next week are mounting amid the uncertainty about the global growth outlook. Nowotny’s comments yesterday that even core inflation is clearly below target further fuelled speculation of additional measures, although the Austrian central bank head called for structural reforms rather than hinting at ECB action.

The Eurozone posted trade surplus of EUR 19.8 bln in August, down from EUR 22.4 bln in the previous month. Exports were up 6.0% y/y in August, versus nominal import growth of 3.0% y/y, although considering that lower oil prices are suppressing the nominal import bill, real import growth will have been higher.

Eurozone final CPI was confirmed at -0.1% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 0.2% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that the drop back into negative territory was driven by a sharp decline in energy prices, which were down -1.7% m/m and -8.9% y/y, versus -7.2% y/y in August. Core inflation remains much higher at 0.9% y/y, but as Nowotny highlighted yesterday, this is also considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. So more arguments for the doves at the ECB although the amount of stimulus in the system is already substantial and while central bankers want to keep markets happy they also seem wary of additional action, especially as monetary policy alone can’t fix the Eurozone’s problems.

Main Macro Events Today


• Canada Manufacturing: We expect shipments, due today, to tumble 1.5% m/m in August after the 1.7% gain in July. A 3.6% plunge in exports values provides a compelling reason to forecast a pull-back in manufacturing shipments during August.

• US Industrial Production: September industrial production data is out Friday and we expect a 0.2% (median -0.2%) headline decline for the month which follows a 0.4% decline in August. This would bring capacity utilization down to 77.3% from 77.6% in August. The September employment report was weak and we saw declines in hours worked as well as employment in both manufacturing and mining which will likely weigh on the release.

• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The first release on Michigan Sentiment is out on Friday and should reveal a headline increase to 89.0 (median 88.4) from 87.2 in September. The already released IBD/TIPP poll for October improved to 47.3 from 42.0 in September and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort survey is poised to average 45.0 for the month.

EURUSD UPDATE



EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD sold off in the wake of mixed U.S. data that highlighted a 40 year low in U.S. jobless claims, slightly better core CPI reading, and a small improvement in the Empire State index. The EURUSD market sell off yesterday was a standard knee jerk reaction to the headline positive jobless claims, which saw renewed interest in buying the USD. Technically, the sell off was expected, as momentum indicators have been signaling that buying interest in the EURUSD has been slowing with the stochastic oscillator reading as overextended. Price now sits around the 1.1370′s, and I expect this area to hold, unless today’s U.S. release of the UoM Consumer Sentiment comes in above expectations. The 1.1370′s also happens to be the 38.2% Fibo from the July low (1.0808) – August High (1.1713), so I would expect price support around current levels. My conclusion for the short term trader is to add long positions above 1.1370 for targets between the 1.1460′s and 1.1560′s.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 16.10.2015 в 22:09.
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Старый 19.10.2015, 13:45   #86 (permalink)
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Date : 19th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th October 2015.




AUDUSD, Daily

AUDUSD 5-day change is lower against other major currencies in what seems to be a pause in the recent price rally from the September 29th low (0.6936) to the Oct 12th high (.7380). Daily technical observations spots a bullish 10,50 SMA cross, consecutive higher tops and bottoms on price from September 4th – October 12th (0.69 L / .7380 H ) and the fact that current price is trading above the 10,50 SMA brings me to the conclusion that price remains in a short term uptrend. If today’s low on price holds above the 0.7230 area this could create a lower top above last week’s low (0.72) that may open up the way towards 0.7380; my ultimate short term price objective near 0.7440. However, traders should be on alert for any break below the 0.72 support that may support a deeper price retracement from the September Low to October’s current high with relevant support in this case spotted around the 0.71-0.7110′s.



GBPAUD, Weekly

GBPAUD weekly chart analysis, price touched a six year high at 2.24 late August and since has made a series of lower tops on price. Current price is trading below both the tentative downward slopping trend line, and the 10 period SMA. Stochastic oscillator analysis spots a bullish cross below the 20 line indicating a possible pause in the current downward price direction. My conclusion for the weekly chart trader is to sell into any strength higher up from current price, ideally near the 2.14 area for a 2.03 target.

FXPAIR : GBPAUD
SUPPORTS: 2.03
RESISTANCES: 2.24




ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD



Main Macro Events This Week

* United States: Housing releases dominate the economic calendar. The sector has disappointed with relatively moderate growth despite the improved job market and still low mortgage rates. This week’s reports aren’t likely to alter that assessment. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (Today) is projected steady at 62 in October, the best level since 2005. September housing starts (Tuesday) are seen edging up to a 1.130 mln pace, rebounding from a 7.1% cumulative decline in July and August. Existing home sales for September (Thursday) are projected rising 1.7% to a 5.40 mln clip to unwind part of the 4.8% August drop. The August FHFA home price index (Thursday) and weekly MBA mortgage numbers (Wednesday) are also slated. The only other report of note is the flash Markit manufacturing PMI for October. Chair Yellen (Tuesday) will give brief welcome remarks at a Labor Department event. Governor Brainard (Today) will discuss removing unnecessary regulation. Dudley and Powell (Tuesday) are speaking at a money market conference. And Governor Powell will also speak on market liquidity.

* Canada: The Canadian calendar is highlighted by the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement (Wednesday) and the Monetary Policy Report. We expect no change to the current 0.50% setting, alongside a cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation that is supportive of no change in rates for an extended period. The Federal election will be held today. As for economic data, the September CPI is seen slowing to a 1.2% y/y pace, but with a flat month comparable reading as a drop in gasoline prices competes with the typical seasonal jump in clothing prices. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is expected to nudge higher to a 2.2% y/y rate in September following the 2.1% clip in August. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in August after the 0.5% gain in July. Wholesale shipments (Tuesday) are seen rising 0.3% in August after the flat reading in July.

* Europe: All eyes will be on the ECB this week. Eurozone inflation is back in negative territory and uncertainty about the global growth outlook is rising, which is putting intense pressure on Draghi to extend or expand the QE program. However, the ECB has already provided an unprecedented amount of stimulus and the measures have eased credit conditions and bolstered confidence. Inflation is expected to pick up again toward the end of the year and with domestic demand robust, we don’t see the risk of a deflationary spiral. What the Eurozone needs are structural reforms, not an ever-easy policy stance. And in this situation, Draghi is likely to maintain the wait and see approach, at least for now, although his comments are likely to be sufficiently dovish to keep markets happy, even if a steady hand policy will likely disappoint some and push up yields, at least temporarily. The economic calendar this week focuses on preliminary PMI readings for October (Friday), which we expect to show a further slowdown in the pace of expansion in both services and manufacturing. The EMU’s manufacturing reading is seen falling to 51.7 from 52.0 and the services reading to 53.4 from 53.6 in the previous month. Preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers for October are also expected to head south with growing concerns about the global growth outlook starting to spook consumers. The Eurozone also has BoP and current account data, Italian orders numbers and German PPI inflation.

* United Kingdom: The week ahead is pretty quiet, which will leave the focus of sterling markets on external data and developments and Chinese growth data. UK government borrowing (Wednesday) is the first data of note, followed by official retail sales data for September (Thursday).

* China: Growth was expected to slow to a 6.5% y/y pace, from the 7.0% clip seen in Q1 and Q2 but came in at 6.9%. The figure fell short of the 7.0% official forecast, but was so slight that the damage on global market sentiment remained negligible. Even the bigger drop was not expected to weigh on stocks due to the “good news is bad news” psychology and hopes of more PBoC stimulus. The better than expected data may not help sentiment much though, as the Chinese data are often viewed to be doctored. September industrial production (Today) is forecast to dip to 6.0% y/y from 6.2% in August. September retail sales (Today) are penciled in at 10.7% y/y gain, down slightly from the prior 10.8% outcome.

* Japan: In Japan, the September trade report (Wednesday) also is eagerly awaited for growth insights though balance is likely to be impacted significantly by weakness in imports (y/y) amid low energy prices. Indeed, the JPY 569.4 bln August deficit is expected to reverse sharply to a surplus of JPY 50 bln. The pace of export growth is seen holding steady, though the increasingly sluggish growth in the region may limit exports as well. The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected to fall 0.4% m/m, as compared to the prior 0.2% gain.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 19.10.2015 в 14:27.
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Старый 21.10.2015, 13:58   #87 (permalink)
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Date : 21st October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURAUD Daily, the AUD has given back some recent gains against the majors over the last few trading sessions, leaving the outlook for the AUD to continue a narrow trade range as concerns about inflation subside, while commodities seek out a bottom. Technically, the Daily EURAUD observations include: bearish 10,50 SMA crossover spotted, price trades within a downward slopping trend channel, and stochastic oscillator indicates positive upward momentum. My conclusion for the Daily supports long positions with a price target near the 1.5840 inside swing area.





Main Macro Events Today



• Bank of Canada Rates Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% rate setting in today’s announcement. Economic data has been consistent with a return to GDP growth in Q3 after the oil price shock left back to back erosion in Q1 and Q2. The Bank’s Q3 GDP estimate of 1.5% is destined for a substantial upward revision (we see a 3.0% gain) in the Monetary Policy Report. But reduced global and U.S. growth prospects promise to trim the 2.3% estimate for 2016 GDP (we see 2.2%). Hence, we expect the growth and inflation outlook to back expectations for no change in rates for an extended period.

• BOE’s Governor Carney speech. In today’s Speech Carney will comment on how Britain’s EU membership will impact the Bank of England’s ability to manage the economy and protect the banking sector.


FX News Today

Japan’s trade deficit narrowed 88.1% y/y to 114.5 bln JPY from a revised -569.4 bln JPY (was -569.7 bln JPY). Imports dropped 11.1% y/y, while exports edged up 0.6% y/y. The latter was the slowest pace in more than a year as shipments around Asia softened, with those to China dropping 3.5%. Exports to the U.S. were strong, however, up more than 10%, largely on autos and pharmaceuticals. On the month the deficit widened 4.8% with exports down 1.7% for a third straight decline, while imports fell 1.9%, a second consecutive monthly slide. The Nikkei is higher on the day as the trade data increases hopes for more stimulus.following a 0.5% gain in August.

Bund futures already recovered opening losses and are rising in tandem with Gilts and stock markets. Volatility has returned ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. Japanese trade numbers boosted hopes of further stimulus in Japan and reminded European markets that even if the ECB continues to sit on the fence tomorrow, this doesn’t mean the end for an expansion of the QE program. Most analysts expect Draghi to announce a move in December.

• Canada’s election and the economy: The liberal majority victory provides some solace to a market that was prepared for a minority government and all the lack of certainty that vote by vote coalition gathering brings. Of course, a Trudeau majority victory brings a greater tolerance for Federal deficits. Harper ran deficits after 2009′s global upheaval but had been focused on bringing finances back to balance. Trudeau, in contrast, campaigned on running modest (C$10 bln) deficits for the next three years to finance infrastructure projects in a bid to boost Canada’s flagging economy. We would point out that the extended time lag between approval and actual construction typically precludes infrastructure “investment” from having any impact on the economy in the near-term. Meanwhile, Trudeau plans to fund tax cuts for middle income earners by raising taxes on the top 1%. As for the corporate tax rate, Trudeau said during the campaign that the current 15% is “fine.”

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 21.10.2015 в 20:53.
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Старый 22.10.2015, 15:12   #88 (permalink)
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Date : 22nd October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd October 2015.




EURUSD, 240 min

The sideways move over the last three days has been a reflection of both market participants’ carefulness ahead of ECB meeting and the fact that the pair is trading between support and resistance levels. ECB leaders gather today in Malta and Mario Draghi will be speaking on European economy. We do not expect the ECB to announce new QE measures today. This expectation is in line with the analyst consensus. Inflation is below ECB target but Draghi has expressed satisfaction on increased lending in the Euro area. This suggests no need for new QE measures.

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at a support created by previous pivot highs and 50% Fibonacci retracement. The 100 period SMA coincides with this support while the Stochastics Oscillator points to the pair being oversold in both the 4h and daily time frame. The last week’s bearish pin bar together with the upper weekly Bollinger Bands has been limiting the moves to the upside. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1295 and 1.1388. The support can be found at 1.1260, a 61.8% Fibonacci level which coincides with 50 day SMA. Look for a move higher towards the 1.1388 resistance if no new QE promises or measures are introduced.

MACRO EVENTS & FX NEWS



Main Macro Events Today

[B]• ECB Rates Decision: ECB seen on hold, focus on presser. We expect the central bank to stay on hold today, as does the overwhelming majority of analysts in the latest Bloomberg survey, with only one expecting further easing measures already this week. This does not mean that an extension or expansion of the QE program will be off the table however and Draghi’s comments at the press conference will likely strike a fine balance between justifying the current wait and see stance and assuring markets that the ECB is ready and willing to act again if necessary. Comments suggest that the low inflation environment is once again becoming a concern and December, when the updated set of economic projections is due, will become a major focal point for a decision on additional steps.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of October 17 is out today and should reveal an increase to 264k (median 265k) from 255k last week. We expect the average for October to be 270k from 269k in September. This supports our call for a 190k employment headline which would follow a 142k increase in September.

• US Existing Home Sales: September existing home sales data today should reveal a 1.7% increase to a 5.400 mln (median 5.350 mln) headline following a 5.310 mln August figure and 5.580 mln in July which set a high back to 2007. Other housing measures are coming in mixed for the month with the NAHB holding steady at 61 in September, starts rising to 1.206 mln but permits slowing to 1.103 mln.


FX News Today

French business confidence mixed, with the overall headline number unexpectedly rising to 101 from 100, but manufacturing confidence falling to 103 from 104 and the production outlook indicator slumping to 2 in October, while the September reading was revised down to 5 from 7 reported initially. The own company production outlook held up better, with the reading declining only slightly to 13 from 14 in the previous month, highlighting that concerns about global developments and the slowdown in emerging markets rather than actual weakness at company level are the main factors.

Bank of Canada Constructive on Growth as Forces Awaken. The Bank of Canada maintained the 0.50% setting for the overnight rate target, matching widespread expectations. While the growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were trimmed, the outlook remains constructive as the projected recovery in Canada’s economy takes hold. The return to full capacity was moved ahead to mid-2017 but Governor Poloz explained that the shift was within the range anticipated in July. The bank is comfortable with the current state of policy and the economy, content to remain on the sidelines as the forces unleashed by 50 basis points in rate cuts in the first half of this year continue to ease the adjustment to lower oil and commodity prices.

BoC Poloz praised the constructive evolution of the economy, answering a question on just how high the debt to income ratio can go. He noted that Canada does not have much experience with ratios this high, but that other countries run higher ratios (not that he’s saying higher ratios are ok, he added). But he is pleased the Bank identified the right forces in the economy when things were uncertain in January. Those forces continue to growth, he noted, and the constructive evolution gets the economy back to better growth. On the CAD, he said the currency has been moving roughly in-line with the terms of trade (ToT), which it has done historically. He noted that “roughly” comes with lots of advisement, as the zone around ToT movements is not trivial. Further solidifying his status as one of the most entertaining of the current crop of central bankers, he likened these moves to walking a dog with a stretchy leash — you get footprints (from the dog) that are not straight like a railroad track. His Q&A has ended.”

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 22.10.2015 в 20:52.
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Старый 27.10.2015, 15:06   #89 (permalink)
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Date : 27th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th October 2015.




EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD failed to hold above its weekly uptrend line on a clean break below the 1.11 resistance. Now that the 6 month uptrend-line has been lost, we need to see if the 1.0990 low, as seen last week, will be retested before price makes an attempt towards 1.11 and possible 1.1170 in a return move. Momentum analysis remains towards the downside, although, I would expect to see some short term buying interest if the Stochastic can create a bull cross near the Stch.Os. 20 line. My multi-day conclusion on EURUSD price action is for a retest of Friday’s low (1.0996) before a return move towards 1.11 –1.1170.

MACRO EVENTS & FX NEWS



Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. Gross Domestic Product: U.K. GDP numbers for Q3, with the quarterly growth rate expected to slow to 0.6% (med same) from 0.7%.

• USD Durable Goods Orders: September durable goods data is out today and should reveal a 0.8% (median -1.0%) decline for orders on the month with shipments unchanged and inventories growing by 0.1%. This compares to respective August figures of -2.3% for orders, -0.2% for shipments and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with analyst forecast would leave the I/S ratio for the month at 1.66 from 1.65 in both August and July.

• USD Consumer Confidence: October Consumer Confidence is out today and should reveal a 104.0 (median 102.8) headline, up from 103.0 in September and 101.3 in August. Other confidence measures have improved in October with Michigan Sentiment rising to 92.1 from 87.2 and the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 47.3 from 42.0.


FX News Today

Greek bailout payment delayed, Greece is once again behind in the implementation of the agreed reforms and so far only 14 of the 48 “milestones” have been implemented. A delay of the reform plan and the payout likely also means a delay in the reform of the banking and finance system, including the recapitalization of banks.

Commodities were on the defensive, but the CAD was range bound near 1.3160 since the open. The lack of price action came as oil prices were steady near $43.5 – $44.00 and as the risk backdrop remains quiet.

USDJPY given back some gains, the pair has gained considerable ground since last week, as the dovish ECB and the aggressive PBoC combined to rally the dollar broadly. With the China rate cut having many market players up the BoJ’s ante to add to QE this week, USD-JPY gains may well hold.

Gold been relatively steady,

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 27.10.2015 в 21:17.
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Старый 28.10.2015, 11:25   #90 (permalink)
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Date : 28th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th October 2015.




The AUD is broadly weaker against the majors in the wake of disappointing CPI data.
The CAD is higher even though the BoC’s Lane did not offer anything new on policy or the economy, as expected.
The USD, EUR and GBP are mostly unchanged ahead of today’s start of the FOMC meeting.



AUDUSD, Daily

Price looks to retest .7160 before continuation of its downtrend for a 0.7162 target in the immediate short term. Price has broken down through recent lows at .7200. Targets further out could be near 0.7100 and 0.7020. However attempts to form a higher low near 0.7260 could signal a potential recovery towards the .7400′s.

FX Pair : AUDUSD
Supports: 0.7063
Resistances: 0.7260



USDCAD, Daily

Stochastic Oscillator analysis is starting to turn bearish. The medium term risk of a deeper retracement of the May to September 1.1922-1.3454 advance to a minimum of 1.2658-88 and possibly 1.2507-61 is possible; provided we get a solid break below the recent upward trend line. The longer-term trend does remain up. However, for the short term daily trader, I would expect any downward movement to stop near the 1.3180 – 1.3045 levels.

Main Macro Events Today



• USD Goods Trade Balance: The trade deficit has narrowed sharply since recent-highs early in 2012, and hovered close to levels seen in 2009 before the recent string of widening deficits that peaked in April. The September trade deficit is expected to contract 2.7% to -$47.0 bln after expanding 15.6% to -$48.3 bln in August. Exports in September are expected to decline 0.2% while imports show a 0.7% decrease on the month. The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to -$109.7 bln in Q2 from the -$118.3 bln deficit in Q1. Its expected for the deficit to be -$102 bln in Q3.

• USD FOMC Statement: Few expect any move from the Fed this year, let alone in the off-month of October.

• USD Consumer Confidence: The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Shadow Board is sending the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) ahead of its Official Cash Rate (OCR) review today . The Board, comprised of nine economists and business leaders, is calling for RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler to leave the OCR at 2.75%. Wheeler has cut the OCR by 25 basis points on three occasions this year, indicating in his September Monetary Policy Statement, “Some further easing in the OCR seems likely”. NZIER senior economist Christina Leung recognizes that while inflation is very subdued at 0.4%, the economy will receive a boost.


FX News Today

The AUD provided the main action in overnight trade, the AUDUSD fell around 80 pips in making a three-week low at 0.7111, taking out its 50-day moving average at 0.7138 on route.

German GfK consumer confidence declines, confirming the downtrend in recent months. The low interest rate environment is making savings increasingly unattractive. At the same time, income expectations may have remained steady over the month, but have come down markedly since the summer and with business cycle expectations now in negative territory consumers are clearly starting to get concerned about the outlook.

German import price inflation weaker than expected, this continues to be driven by lower oil prices and the annual rate excluding oil related products remains in positive territory. Lower than expected import price inflation will gradual feed through to headline CPI numbers and therefore add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB, with the updated set of staff projections in December likely to bring another adjustment in inflation projections and delivering Draghi the justification for additional easing.

Australia Core CPI was below projections, putting perhaps some pressure on the RBA to ease again. CPI increased 0.5% in Q3. Australia CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y rate, matching the 1.5% y/y rate in Q2. CPI grew at a 1.3% y/y clip in Q1. Total CPI has run below 2.0% since Q4 of 2014, which was a 1.7% rate. The trimmed mean CPI slowed to a 2.1% y/y pace from a 2.2% y/y pace in Q2 and a 2.3% rate in Q1. The weighted median CPI expanded at a 2.2% y/y rate in Q3 after the 2.4% y/y clip in Q2 and the 2.5% clip in Q1.

Japan retail sales fell 0.2% y/y in Sep, September retail sales fell 0.2% y/y after rising 0.8% y/y in August. On the month sales edged up 0.7% versus unchanged previously. Large retailer sales slowed slightly to a 1.7% y/y pace from August’s 1.8%. (28-Oct). Household spending, or PCE rebounded 2.9% y/y in August after falling 0.2% y/y in July, and versus -2.0% y/y in June. (Aug 28). Consumer Confidence (SA) fell to 40.3 in July from 41.7 in June and 41.4 in May. (Aug 10).

Bank of Japan to Expand Stimulus, Slowing inflation growth alongside and a mixed domestic growth backdrop provide the Bank of Japan with the backing to expand already ample policy accommodation. The rate cut by China’s central bank and dovish guidance from the European Central Bank have stacked the deck in favor of further easing measures from the Bank of Japan, as we expect them to pursue a more is better approach to policy.

[B]FOMC likely to hold firm with minimal changes to outlook[B/], The FOMC meets today and tomorrow and there is virtually no chance for any changes in policy. But the policy statement will be scrutinized for any indications that December will be the start of the tightening process. It’s still the case that only the employment mandate is being met, while inflation is still lagging. But weakness in recent real sector data, including today’s September durables report, along with renewed erosion in commodity prices, and the firmer dollar, argue against accelerating growth and don’t suggest inflationary pressures will be on the rise anytime soon. Look for the Fed to modify its language, perhaps shifting its characterization on the economy from moderate to modest. It’s likely to downshift slightly its view on the labor market after say it’s “continued to improve” in the September statement. On inflation the Fed can reiterate it’s running below forecast, while market based measures have moved lower too. These factors put the FOMC in a difficult spot credibility-wise, especially those policymakers who are anxious to tighten now, as data are leaning to the contrary. Policymakers can’t be encouraged by the Q slowdown abroad either, and the more accommodative postures from the ECB, PBoC, and probably the BoJ, keep the Fed in a bind too.

Gold been relatively steady,

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 28.10.2015 в 13:47.
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Старый 02.11.2015, 13:54   #91 (permalink)
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Date : 2nd November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd November 2015.




Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There are several crucial economic reports this week, including nonfarm payrolls, vehicle sales, ISMs, and trade. The October employment report due out on Friday will be the week’s main event. The unemployment rate is forecast dipping to 5.0% from 5.1% previously, another multi-decade low. Also of importance is October ISM manufacturing figures on Monday and the services data on Wednesday. The manufacturing index is estimated edging up to 50.5 from 50.2 in September, though that’s just barely in expansionary territory. The non-manufacturing index is expected to rise to 57.0 from 56.9 as solid growth is seen accelerating a bit. Vehicle sales on Tuesday are expected to inch lower, however, after strong sales through the summer. Trade figures for September on Wednesday should show sharp narrowing in the deficit to a -$41.5 bln gap, from -$48.3 bln in August, given the drop in the goods deficit posted last week. Q3 productivity on Thursday is seen at unchanged for the preliminary report, from the 3.3% Q2 pace. Unit labor costs should rebound to a 2.5% rate in Q3, versus Q2′s -1.4%. Other data include October ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, construction spending for September also on Monday, September factory orders on Tuesday, and September consumer credit to be released on Friday.

• Canada: Key reports this week from Canada, with September trade and October employment on the schedule. The September trade balance on Wednesday is expected to narrow to -C$1.9 bln in from the -C$2.5 bln shortfall in August. Employment on Friday is expected to improve 10.0k in October after the 12.1k gain in September. The unemployment rate is seen at 7.1% in October, matching the 7.1% rate seen in September. The Ivey PMI on Thursday is projected to improve to 55.0 in October from the seasonally adjusted 53.7 in September. Building permits on Friday are anticipated to grow 1.0% in September after the 3.7% drop in August. The RBC manufacturing PMI for October is due Monday. Results in line with analyst estimates, especially on trade and employment, would be supportive of the Bank of Canada’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook as detailed in the October Monetary Policy Report.

• Japan: The October Markit/JMMA PMI on Monday is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2. Auto sales are also on tap. The markets are closed Tuesday for the Culture Day holiday. The calendar does not pick up again until late in the week with the BoJ minutes to the October 6, 7 meeting on Thursday. Preliminary September leading and coincident indices on Friday should show the former down 1.3% m/m from the prior -1.5% reading, while the latter is expected to come in at -0.7% m/m from -0.9% in August. In addition, eyes will be peeled for news on a rumored Japanese government special stimulus budget, which made the rounds last Friday following the BoJ’s inaction on the QE front.

• China: The Caixin/Markit series released today improved slightly to 48.3 from 47.2. October services PMI out on Wednesday is likely to improve to 50.7 from 50.5.

• Australia: The calendar for Australia features the RBA on Tuesday, which is expected to maintain the current 2.00% policy setting, although the slowing in core CPI during Q3 revealed last week opened the door to a possible rate cut. As for economic data, the trade deficit on Wednesday is expected to narrow to -A$3.0 bln in September from -A$3.1 bln in August. Retail sales on Wednesday are seen rising 0.3% in September after the 0.4% gain in August. Building approvals on Monday expanded 2.2% in September after the 6.9% drop in August. The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy due out on Friday will update the bank’s growth and inflation projections.

• New Zealand: The calendar features the Q3 employment report on Wednesday. It’s expected for HLFS employment to rise 0.5% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% gain in Q2. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 6.0% in Q3 from 5.9% in Q2.

• Europe: This week’s reports are unlikely to change the macro outlook fundamentally for the Eurozone . The services index is out on Wednesday. Economic activity continues to expand, and on the whole, confidence readings have surprised on the upside in October, which shows the recovery remains on track. German manufacturing orders on Thursday are also expected to have rebounded in September, after falling sharply in August. German industrial production on tab for Friday is seen up 0.4% m/m , after falling 1.2% m/m in August — the September drop in orders likely will prevent a more pronounced rebound. Eurozone retail sales are also due out on Thursday.



FX News Today

The GBP is slightly higher, against the EUR and USD after a much stronger than expected U.K. Manufacturing PMI reading. The unexpected jump in the manufacturing PMI, which has lowered the chances that the BoE will remove its implicit tightening bias. Gains against EUR, JPY and USD are modest however.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI, All Eurozone PMI readings apart from Greece are above the 50 point no change mark and even in Greece, confidence is improving further. Still, while the numbers signal a slight uptick in manufacturing output at the start of the last quarter, growth in the manufacturing sector is hardly buoyant and the sector is feeling the strain from the slowdown in emerging market economies, most notably China.

Eurozone stock markets are higher, the FTSE 100 is underperforming and posting slight losses, despite much better than expected PMI readings.

Worries over China’s growth, the official manufacturing PMI held steady at 49.8 in October, disappointing expectations for a bounce back to the 50.0 expansion-contraction line. It’s a third straight sub-50 reading. The non-manufacturing index slipped to to 53.1 from 53.4, still reflecting expansion but is the slowest pace since December 2008.

Greek banks need EUR 14.4 bln recapitalization, the ECB said in its Asset Quality Review, published Saturday, that Greek banks need at least EUR 4.4 bln from shareholders and bondholders to meet the shortfall identified under the current baseline macroeconomic assumptions.

Turkish lira soars, with stocks on Erdogan election success. The currency jumped the most since 2008 according to Bloomberg calculations after Erdogan’s AK Party won the second election this year. This ends months of political deadlock and gave a boost to stocks, as well as bonds, with 10-year yields dropping to the lowest level in three months.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. manufacturing PMI: Jumped to 55.5 in October from 51.8 in September. A much stronger than expected reading and in fact the highest since June last year. The new orders number jumped to 56.9 from 52.9 in the previous month and is at the highest level since July 2014. GBP is slightly higher against EUR and USD and the Gilt contract has extended losses on the strong number that will back the arguments to maintain the BoE’s tightening bias.

• EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI: EMU Oct manufacturing PMI revised up to 52.3 from 52.0 reported initially and versus 52.0 in the previous month. National readings had been mixed, but with Spanish and French numbers slightly lower than expected, while the Italian reading surged higher and the German PMI was revised up markedly with the final release.

• USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: The manufacturing index is estimated edging up to 50.5 from 50.2 in September, though that’s just barely in expansionary territory.

• CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI: If the results are in line with consensuses, especially on trade and employment, this would be supportive of the Bank of Canada’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook as detailed in the October Monetary Policy Report.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 02.11.2015 в 14:32.
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Старый 03.11.2015, 12:58   #92 (permalink)
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Date : 3rd November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 3rd November 2015.




• The USD within the last 5 days’ of trading is lower across the board, in the wake of the latest US economic data that could be viewed by some market analysts that the Fed will continue to hold off again on any move on rates. However, the latest data does contradict the FOMC statement that hinted at a potential rate hike as early as December. For the time being, the market expectation looks to remain a mixed bag. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October inched down to 50.1 from 50.2 in the preceding month, the ISM headline missed the mark, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP for Q4 fell to 1.9% from 2.5%, last forecast on Friday. The USD market will now focus on the U.S. Non-farm Payroll report due out on Friday.

• The AUD is attempting to break a recent downtrend, as the RBA held rates steady at 2.00%, matching expectations. The central bank also noted that “growth in output had continued at around the average pace of recent years” and that while global trade was “subdued” it had “picked up recently,” although China was still seen as a main risk.

• The JPY has weakened against most of the majors, news that the Japanese government will put forward a supplementary budget of at least JPY 3 tln, has weighed on the yen. Given the weakened state of the Japanese economy further QE moves are expected from the Bank at some point. For now, USDJPY remains as a buy on the pullbacks.



AUDUSD, Daily

Technically, the recent bullish momentum on the AUDUSD pair should continue since stochastic analysis, as well as moving average indicators, point to a potential close above the downward slopping trend line. Should we see a solid price close above the downward trend line, I would expect to see sellers emerging around the 0.7260-0.7290 areas before the continuation of its downtrend for a 0.7062 target.

FX PAIR: AUDUSD
SUPPORTS: 0.7062
RESISTANCES: 0.7260



USDJPY, Daily

The short-term trend is up as price is trading above the downward trend line (Aug – Oct), and price is above its 1 year moving average. Upside potential remains for a 121.80 target, on a break of 121.50, but losing 120.25 will point back towards 119.60.

FX PAIR: AUDJPY
SUPPORTS: 120.25/119.60
RESISTANCES: 121.50

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

The RBA left rates unchanged, which pushed the AUD up across the board, but that didn’t deter stock markets, which focused on the fact that the RBA still kept the door open for further easing.

The U.S. ISM slipped to a 50.1 low, the October ISM is at a new two year low of 50.1, with a drop in the employment gauge to a 47.6 six year low that reinforced the pattern of declining producer sentiment.

The U.S. construction spending report beat estimates, with a 0.6% September rise after boosts in the July and August levels, though the surprise included big boosts in the home improvement residual that doesn’t enter GDP calculations, and the remaining construction data signaled downside risk for the next Q3 GDP revision.

Canada RBC manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0, in October from 48.6 in September. The decline puts the index further below the previous multi-year low of 48.7 seen in February, leaving the weakest reading in this indicator’s short history going back to late 2010.

U.K. manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.5, in October from 51.8 in September. This was a much stronger than expected reading and in fact the highest since June last year.

Gold slipped to nearly one-month lows, now trading around $1,1137/ounce, after touching $1,132,66 overnight. The market continues to fret over last week’s FOMC statement, where fears of a December rate hike have weighed heavily on gold prices.

Crude oil prices declined from two week highs, following poor manufacturing PMI readings out of China, which suggest ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity in the world’s second largest oil consuming countries.

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision: RBA held rates steady at 2.00%, matching expectations. The statement was similar to last month, lacking clear guidance and sticking to a cautiously dovish tone that justifies prevailing policy settings while reminding that they have room to cut further if needed. They also maintained the shift to less-negative language about the Australian dollar (first seen in August) remarking that the currency was “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices” versus the previous guidance that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.”

• GBP PMI Construction: The forecast calls for a 58.8 reading down from the last 59.9 number.

• ECB Presidents Draghi’s Speech: Eurozone markets will look for comments from ECB’s Draghi for a clarification of the policy stance after the president seemed to dampen easing hopes in comments from last weekend.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 03.11.2015 в 15:54.
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Date : 5th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th November 2015.




EURGBP UPDATE

I wrote in yesterday’s analysis on EURGBP: At the time of writing the pair is trading at the supporting end of the wedge. This market is still in a sell the rallies mode with the nearest resistance levels at 0.7093 and 0.7105. The nearest 240 min support is at 0.7060 while the next daily support can be found at 0.7027.

Those that have been to my webinars knew exactly how to get into a short trade and had a low risk trade opportunity as EURGBP hit the 0.7093 resistance identified in the report. The pair hit the first support yesterday and after some consolidation has now resumed the downward momentum. Those that used the position management technique they have learned in the webinars have now a profitable and risk free trade. You are most welcome to join me to the webinars and learn how to find and trade these opportunities. Register now. It’s free.

Today is a so called super Thursday, a day when Bank of England publishes not only the interest rates decision but also the quarterly inflation report. No changes are anticipated from the BoE. As Governor Carney has pointed out on at least two occasions since mid-summer, the possibility of a rate hike will be in “sharper relief” at the end of the year, so the implicit tightening bias remains in place. Still, the minutes will be of considerable interest, along with the Quarterly Inflation Report, which will bring new projections on inflation and growth. We expect the minutes to reveal a 8-1 vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the lone hawk McCafferty maintaining his dissent for a quarter point hike for a fourth straight month.

The Inflation Report should reveal downward nudges to both inflation and growth forecasts in the nearer-term part of the forecast horizon following disappointing prelim Q3 GDP growth and an unexpected return to negative inflation readings in September.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

No changes are anticipated from the BoE. As Governor Carney has pointed out on at least two occasions since mid-summer, the possibility of a rate hike will be in “sharper relief” at the end of the year, so the implicit tightening bias remains in place. Still, the minutes will be of considerable interest, along with the Quarterly Inflation Report, which will bring new projections on inflation and growth. We expect the minutes to reveal a 8-1 vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the lone hawk McCafferty maintaining his dissent for a quarter point hike for a fourth straight month. The Inflation Report should reveal downward nudges to both inflation and growth forecasts in the nearer-term part of the forecast horizon following disappointing prelim Q3 GDP growth and an unexpected return to negative inflation readings in September.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was revised up to 2.3% for Q4 compared to 1.9% previously following the surge on ISM Services to 59.1 in October: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3 percent on November 4, up from 1.9 percent on November 2. Following this morning’s Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the forecast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent while the forecast for real fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent to 4.3 percent.” Blue Chip median estimates have settled near 2.7% and this update closed the gap somewhat.

Implied Fed funds futures are suggesting about a 58% chance of a hike in December, versus about 52% at yesterday’s close, and 50% at the start of the week. Though the Fed Chair didn’t say anything new in her Q&A, the fact that she didn’t back down from the hawkish spin in the October policy statement, and that she reiterated the transitory nature of the soft trend in inflation added to market beliefs that the FOMC will pull the trigger this time. While the Fed must still monitor incoming data, unless the numbers are unambiguously weak, the FOMC can still tighten policy on the excuse that the figures are in line with their outlooks.

Main Macro Events Today

* US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of October 31st is out today and should reveal a 257k (median 263k) headline from 260k in the week prior. Claims are continuing to strike a firm path and look poised to leave a month oaverage of 259k in October, down from 269k in September and 275k in August. Alongside the strength in claims we expect a better October employment report with a 190k headline.

* US Productivity: The first release on Q3 productivity should revel a 1.5% (median unchanged) decline following a 3.3% increasein Q2. Unit labor costs should be up 4.0% (median 2.3) after a 1.4% decline in Q2. Output is expected to by up 1.2% which compares to the Q3 GDP figure of 1.5%.

* Canada Ivey PMI: We expect the Ivey PMI to improve to 55.0 in October from 53.7 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Broadly, business sentiment remains under pressure as the economy continues to adjust to the oil sector contraction and global growth uncertainty. The RBC manufacturing PMI (released Monday) fell to 48.0 in October from 48.6 in September. The CFIB Business Barometer survey of small and medium sized business sentiment improved to 58.9 in October from a 56.0 level in September that was the lowest since April of 2009. Yet the CFIB’s index was well below the level seen in October of 2014.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 05.11.2015 в 13:14.
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Старый 06.11.2015, 14:56   #94 (permalink)
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Date : 6th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 6th November 2015.



271K NEW JOBS INSTEAD OF 190K EXPECTED!



EURUSD, Daily

US nonfarm payrolls surged 271k in October from a revised 137k in September (was 142k) and 153k in August (was 136k) for a net 12k upward bump. These put the 3-month average at 187k. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.0% from the 5.1% over the prior two months. The labor force rebounded 313k from -350k previously, while household employment climbed 320k from -236k. The participation rate held at 62.4%. Average hourly earnings were up 0.36% from September’s unchanged. The workweek was steady at 34.5. Private payrolls jumped 268k with increases of 27k in the goods producing sector, 31k in construction, with manufacturing unchanged. Employment in the services sector climbed 241k with strength in business services, education, and trade/transport. The government added 3k. Start the countdown.

Surprise strong number send the USD higher against the currencies and Gold while European equity markets reacted higher. EURUSD traded almost down to 1.07 and is at the time of writing reacting a bit higher. This number increased the markets’ belief that the Fed will hike the rates in December. Therefore the previous support at 1.0837 should act as a resistance and we’ll be looking for short signals at the level should the market rally there next week. The nearest support is at 1.0666.

MACRO EVENTS & FOREX NEWS



FX News Today

The USD has remained firm; ahead of today’s all important NFP data. The data carries make or break potential with regard to the possibilities of the Fed initiating a rate lift-off in December, and with the unemployment rate widely anticipated to dip to a new cycle low of 5.0%, markets are positioned for this eventuality.

The BoE is clearly in no hurry to hike; the GBP hit a new low against the EUR after the BoE left the policy unchanged as widely expected. In addition, the minutes, released at the same time, showed an 8-1 majority in favor of steady policy. The tightening bias was left in place, but the bank did cut its near term forecasts for growth and inflation and clearly is in no hurry to start the first tightening cycle since 2007. In general, central banks seem to be in a holding pattern at the moment, with December being the next focal point. Until then, markets are likely to remain volatile.

German industrial production dropped; the data is much weaker than initially expected, but not a surprise after the slump in manufacturing orders. The number left production down -0.2% q/q in Q3, after a rise of 0.2% q/q in the previous quarter. This is not a good sign for Q3 GDP numbers, due next week. Additionally, the September data highlights that slowing growth in emerging markets, the widening of the emission scandal and now the refugee crisis are all leaving their mark on the German economy. And slowing growth in Germany will put additional pressure on Draghi to implement further easing at the December council meeting.

The AUD was unmoved by the RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy; which was upbeat on the economy, emphasizing re-balancing away from the resources sector. While acknowledging the recent dip in inflation, the central bank noted that it sees inflation rising in the medium term.

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Non-farm Payrolls: October nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as depressed claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the timing of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 5.0% from 5.1% last month. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from September. Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.2% which would leave a 2.3% y/y rise. Hours worked should be up 0.2% for the month following a 0.2% decline last month. Initial claims averaged 263k in October from 269k in September and 275k in August.

• CAD Unemployment Rate: Employment is expected to rise 10.0k in October after the 12k gains in August and September. Forecast Risk: Canada’s job gains in July and August were the first back to back gains this year, and the further expansion in September suggests some upwards momentum building in the labor market. But this report is volatile, so a modest jobs decline can’t be ruled out in October given the still fragile nature of the economy. Market Risk: An as-expected gain would add to the second half rebound scenario, which is consistent with the Bank’s own view and hence would not alter the outlook for no change in rates for an extended period. Hours worked will be of interest, as the stunning 0.8% surge in August was followed by an 0.8% drop in September. Hours are seen rising 0.5% m/m in October. The unemployment rate is expected at 7.1% in October, matching the 7.1% in September as the highest rates since February of 2014. Average hourly earnings are seen accelerating to a 3.5% y/y pace in October after slowing to 3.0% y/y in September from 3.4% in August. That would remain in-line with a tame compensation cost back-drop and an economy running with spare capacity.



Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 06.11.2015 в 18:07.
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Date : 9th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th November 2015.



EURUSD REACTING HIGHER AFTER FRIDAY’S DROP



EURUSD, 240 min

After the huge surprise in the US Non-Farm Payrolls numbers on Friday the market participants saw the December rate hike in the US as a done deal. This dropped EURUSD to a 1.0666 – 1.0752 support range and drove the US Dollar Index into a resistance (see Friday’s TCM report). As a result EURUSD has recovered slightly and is at the time of writing up by 0.27% from Friday’s close.

All in all the pair is still in a downward sloping channel with resistance ahead at 1.0833. The upper end of the channel isn’t far away from the resistance while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level coincides with the general area of this resistance. In addition the 30 period SMA happens to be relatively near to the resistance at 1.0872. Based on several technical factors coinciding between 1.0833 and 1.0872 I am looking for short trade signals in this bracket should the price rally to these levels. My target for a short trade is at 1.0755.

USDJPY CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGHER AFTER FRIDAY’S DOLLAR BUYING SPREE



USDJPY, Daily

The USD strength and strong data out of the U.S. on Friday has seen the USDJPY extended its post U. S. NFP gain, making a 123.60 peak, the highest level seen since Aug. JPY weakness continues, with the currency following its usual inverse correlation with stock markets. Technically, over the medium term (multi-week), I am seeking a USDJPY target near the 125.20 area, and possibly 128.20-50′s in a measured Fibbo Expansion move (116.16 Aug. low – 121.47 Oct. High). Relevant support levels are 123.15 and 122.


THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be back-loaded this week with retail sales and PPI due to be released on Friday-The-13th and only a handful of minor data updates in a week bisected by the Veteran’s Day break on Wednesday, when bonds and the Fed will be closed but equity markets remain open. It is likely that after Friday’s catch-up payrolls report that the markets will be extra sensitive to any signs of a pick-up in consumption and wage gains this week, though this may not yet be evident. The week kicks off with the Fed’s October LMCI (today), but it’s merely a compilation of already known data. Import and export prices are set to fall 0.3% apiece in October (Tuesday) and -0.3% ex-petro (medians -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. Data resumes after the break with the MBA mortgage market survey (Thursday), initial jobless claims seen declining 7k back down to to 269k. October PPI is set to rise 0.3% vs -0.5% in September (Friday), while the core reading rises only 0.1% vs -0.3%; or -1.1% y/y and 0.5% y/y respectively. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% in October for headline and ex-autos both (medians 0.4%, 0.3%), while business inventories may sink 0.2% (median unchanged) in September and preliminary Michigan sentiment is forecast to tick up to 91.0 in November vs 90.0.

Canada: In Canada, the data calendar is thin this week, with only housing figures due for release. Housing starts (today) are expected to slow to a still strong 220k unit pace in October from the 230.7k rate in September. The acceleration in starts growth during September left the fastest growth rate since the 243.8k clip in April of 2012 and was driven by a 10.5% gain in multi-unit starts to 157.9k units in September. e expect moderation in multi-unit starts to weigh on total starts in October. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to expand 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.3% gain in August.

Europe: German HICP (Thursday) should be confirmed at 0.2% y/y (med same) while French HICP, released for the first time, is seen rising to 0.2% y/y (med same) from 0.1% y/y. Italian and Spanish HICP rates are expected to be confirmed at 0.3% y/y and -0.9% y/y respectively. This should leave the Eurozone aggregate, out the following week at 0.0% y/y. Final inflation numbers aside, the other focus are GDP readings for the third quarter on Friday. Italian GDP growth is seen steady at 0.3% y/y, German GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 0.3% q/q from 0.4% q/q in the second quarter and French GDP is seen picking up again after the stagnation in the second quarter and we are looking for a modest rise of 0.2% q/q (median 0.3%). This should leave the overall Eurozone growth number at 0.4% q/q (median same) also unchanged from the second quarter. Eurozone data releases also include September trade numbers out of Germany (today) and for the Eurozone as a whole (Friday). France releases September production numbers on Tursday, followed by the Eurozone aggregate on Thursday.

United Kingdom: The week ahead is highlighted by BRC retail sales report for October (Tuesday), along with the monthly labour market data covering September and October (Wednesday). The data will arrive with BoE tightening expectations having been put in limbo after the central bank trimming both growth and inflation expectations in its November Inflation Report, published last Thursday, and with Governor Carney having elevated China’s impact on inflation. The BRC report is not likely to alter this picture, where we expect a moderation in October after a strong gain in September. We forecast a 0.8% y/y rise in the headline like-for-like measure, down from 2.6% y/y growth in the month prior. The labour market report should show a continued picture of health, with the September ILO unemployment figure seen remaining at the 5.4% cycle low that was achieved in August, and while we see the October claimant count at a new stagnant +1.4k, we anticipate a solid 3.2% y/y gain (median same) in the with-bonus average household earnings figure for the three months to September. Such an outcome would be a reminder that the BoE still remains headed for a tightening, barring any fresh emerging market crisis. This, in turn, would help give Cable a cushion, which was crushed on the final two days of last week as Fed and BoE policy paths diverged.

China: October CPI and PPI (Tuesday) will be of interest. The former is seen at 1.4% y/y from the prior 1.6% outcome. The latter is projected dipping to -6.0% y/y from September’s -5.9% reading. Tuesday also brings October lending indicators. October industrial production (Wednesday) is forecast at 5.6% y/y from 5.7% in September, while October retail sales (Wednesday), are penciled in at 11.0% y/y from 10.9%. October fixed investment dat a is also due during the week, and is expected to fall to 10.1% y/y from the prior 10.3%.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the October employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 20.0k rise in jobs following the 5.1k drop in October. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.2%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is expected to rise 1.0% in September after the 2.9% gain in August, as low rates continue to underpin housing. ANZ job ads are due on Monday, and we expect ads to rise 2.0% in October after the 3.9% gain in September. There is nothing from the RBA this week. The minutes to the November meeting are due next week.

Japan: In Japan, the September current account surplus (Tuesday) is seen bouncing to JPY 2,000 bln, after falling to JPY 1,653.1 bln in August from July’s JPY 1,808.6 bln. September machine orders (Thursday) are forecast rebounding 2.0% m/m, from the prior 5.7% drop. October PPI (Thursday) is seen at -3.4% y/y from -3.9% in September. The September tertiary index (Friday) likely rose 0.2% m/m after edging up 0.1% in August. Revised September industrial production is also due Friday, and is seen unchanged at 1.0% y/y.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 09.11.2015 в 15:18.
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Date : 10th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th November 2015.




The USD, over the last 5 trading sessions, has out-preformed its peers as markets adjust to expectations that the U.S. Fed will begin to introduce a gradual rate raising policy, beginning in December. The atmosphere moving forward for the markets is fast shifting from a “will there be a rate hike?” to a “how much of a rate hike is expected?” approach.

The USD traded mostly mixed on Monday. For the most part, it was a risk off session with U.S. markets selling off on Monday in what appears to be a delayed reaction to the increased odds of a December Fed rate hike. This is supported by the strong U.S. jobs report that was released on Friday.

Overnight, FX action gave little direction in currency markets, which were largely unaffected by the biggest drop on Wall Street in six weeks and mostly lower stock markets in Asia, nor by data showing a sub forecast Japanese current account surplus, and a further slowdown in Chinese inflation.



EURUSD, Daily

The surprise increase in the U.S. jobs report, and the fact that the E.U. continues to provide hints that they will increase QE, is supporting the ongoing trend for a shift out of the EUR and into the USD. Since price broke the 1.0810 support now turned resistance, but failed to touch the 1.0660 next relevant support level, this leaves me with the view that price may attempt to trace out a short term measured move higher to create a new lower top below 1.0870 before we see a test of the April 21 low (1.0660). The risk however, with this type of trade set-up, since momentum analysis remains firmly to the downside, is that we cannot rule out any sudden sharp declines if price fails to make any progress towards the 1.0810 area.

FX Pair : EURUSD
Supports: 1.0810/1.0660
Resistances: 1.09/1.11



GBPJPY, Daily

GBPJPY has been in a recovery from 180.60′s lows through last Thursday’s recovery high at 187.68. Upside price potential looks limited in the short term to 188.00, since price remains above the valid upward slopping trend line with buyers emerging to support price after a touch of the 50 SMA. Although stochastic momentum analysis may be slowing, the macro environment does support GBP strength and a weaker JPY since for the foreseeable future the BoE and BoJ have contrasting monetary policies.

FX Pair : GBPJPY
Supports: 183.88
Resistances: 188.00

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

China CPI slipped to a 1.3% y/y pace in October, from 1.6% y/y in September, modestly slower than forecast. The inflation index is down from 2.0% y/y in August. Excluding food and energy, CPI fell to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.6% in September and 1.7% in June, July, and August. For the month, October CPI fell 0.3% from 0.1% in September. October PPI was unchanged at a -5.9% y/y rate for a third straight month, and has eroded from -4.6% y/y in the spring. The index has been in negative territory for an unprecedented 44 consecutive months. The weakening trend in inflationary pressures, along with the declines in trade, have increased hope and speculation of additional stimulus. Chinese shares are lower after 5 days of gains.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren: it could be appropriate to hike in December if the economy continues its gradual improvement, while there’s been real improvement in the economy since the October meeting. In particular, the October jobs report was very good news including the reduction of labor slack and it’s reasonable to ask whether current stimulus is still necessary as the worst of the Fed’s September global outlook and market concerns haven’t materialized. He sees a gradual rate hike cycle as needed to “probe” labor markets, while assessing the Fed’s new tools and analyzing their effects. He believes that domestic demand will help offset dollar strength and sees above-potential growth ahead. Coming from one of the more dovish Fed members, this suggests few impediments remain for a December hike.

OECD trimmed its global growth outlook again in its twice annual review amid concerns over weakness in emerging markets (especially citing recessions in Brazil and Russia, and the slowdown in China). The organization now pegs world growth at 2.9% for 215 and 3.3% for 2016, versus prior forecasts of 3.0% and 3.6%, respectively, from September. However, the U.S. expansion remains on track with a 2.4% GDP growth rate for this year, accelerating to 2.5% in 2016, and dipping back to 2.4% in 2017. The Euro-area is expected to grow at a 1.8% clip next year and 1.9% in the following year, with Japan seen at 1.0% in 2016, but slowing to half that in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

US Wholesale Trade: September wholesale trade data is out today and should reveal a -0.3% (median -0.2%) headline for the month with the accompanying inventory component remaining unchanged. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady from 1.31 in August. Other measuers of inventories were softer in September and we saw factory goods inventories down 0.4% with shipments down 0.4% as well and orders down 1.0% for the month.

US Import and Export Prices: October trade price data is expected to show import prices down 0.1% (median -0.1%) with export prices down 0.2%. Apart from gains during May and June around the rebound in oil prices both the import and export price indexes have posted negative readings for the past year. Despite some slight rebound in oil prices in October prices still remained at depressed levels which will likely continue to weigh on the release.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 10.11.2015 в 15:51.
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Старый 11.11.2015, 14:40   #97 (permalink)
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Date : 11th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th November 2015.


WEAK UK WAGE DATA WEIGHING ON GBP



GBPUSD, 240 min

UK unemployment unexpectedly dropped to a new cycle low of 5.3% in September data, down from 5.4% in August and July’s 5.5%. The consensus had been for an unchanged 5.4% reading. This takes the jobless rate further south of the BoE’s NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) threshold of 5.5%. The employment rate, meanwhile, rose to 73.7% the highest since records began in 1971.

Despite this, wage data disappointed: the ex-bonus average household pay packet rose 2.5% y/y in the three months to September, down from the 2.8% increase of August, while the with-bonus figure rose 3.0% y/y, unchanged from August and shy of the median forecast for 3.2%. The weaker wage data has been the main takeaway for markets, with sterling trading weaker in the wake of the release, though with inflation fractionally negative, incomes continue to trend firmly upwards in real terms. The October claimant count has been somewhat overshadowed on this occasion, coming in with a rise of 3.3k, slightly worse than the 1.4k median forecast. The claimant count rate remained unchanged at 2.3%.

GBPUSD is trading just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level after it reacted lower from the proximity of 1.5197 resistance level. It is trading near the upper 4h Bollinger Bands while the 30 period SMA and a consolidation from yesterday appears to give some support. Even though the market turned lower before hitting my intended shorting level I am still looking for short signals at or near 1.1597 resistance (coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci level) with an aim to cover the trade near 1.5060 level.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 11.11.2015 в 16:43.
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Старый 13.11.2015, 13:05   #98 (permalink)
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Date : 13th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th November 2015.




AUDUSD outperformed on a solid employment report out of Australia yesterday. While the credibility of the data has been called into question by at least some economists, few doubt that the validity of the underlying trend. The employment report showed a rise of 58.6k, nearly triple the median forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from 6.2%. The details of the report were encouraging, including labour participation, aggregate hours worked and back revisions. This report together with some longer term technical factors has caused the 5-day return in AUD to beat most of the counterparts. More on technical in the following pages.



AUDUSD, Daily

While AUDUSD is still inside a weekly long term bearish regression channel (drawn from June 2014 high to the August 2015 low) the price action is suggesting that the bears are getting weaker. There is already one weekly higher low in place which was followed by a higher high. These are signs of the selling pressure turning into a more balance supply and demand dynamic. In March this year I said in the HotForex Global Trends report that divergence between the Fed and RBA rates policies is still rather clear and should pressure the pair towards the 0.7269 support. I also expected the AUDUSD to bottom out in the range between 0.64 and 0.72. The pair indeed dived further and has now reached the levels anticipated in my report. The August low is inside this range and therefore the recent price action is not that surprising.

The daily chart suggests the pair has the line of least resistance below the current price but the 0.7067 support isn’t that far. There is pivotal resistance at 0.7136 while the upper end of the short term regression channel coincides with it. The 50 day moving average above the current market price adds to the technical factors providing resistance. I makes sense to look for sell signals around a resistance but the less negative weekly picture and strong recent employment figures together with the fact that US Dollar index is near an important resistance are risk factors for a short trade from the current levels. I’m looking for sell signals between 0.7194 and 0.7222.



EURAUD, Daily

EUR has found some support against the dollar over the last few days. This however, hasn’t stopped its slide against the AUD and the EURAUD pair is once again moving lower after brief rally yesterday. In the longer term picture the current trading levels coincide with a major support visible in the weekly picture. The 1.5105 level used to resist price advances in December 2015 and July 2015. Yesterday’s trading found a low at a 30 week SMA and caused the market to rally and create a bullish pin bar. This move however hasn’t had any follow through. I expect the market to move towards the 1.4987 low today while an intraday support at 1.5071 could slow it down. The nearest resistance area is between 1.5168 and 1.5303 while the next support after yesterday’s low is at 1.4877.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

German Q3 GDP slowed to 0.3% q/q, from 0.4% q/q in Q2, in line with expectations. The working day adjusted annual rate improved to 1.7% y/y from 1.6% y/y. There is no full breakdown with the preliminary numbers, but the statistics office said in its press release that growth was mainly driven by private and public consumption. Investment seems to have contracted slightly and there was a negative contribution from net exports, as import growth outstripped export growth. So for once a consumption driven economy, not the usual export led growth pattern. This clearly is also due to the ECB’s ultra-accommodative policy, that is also causing problems for banks and insurers, but also households forced to increase private pension provisions.

Bullard and Lacker look for higher rates. Lacker: the case for raising rates is “strong”said the Fed hawk, who dissented at the last two meetings against the consensus to keep policy on hole. He acknowledged to reporters that his “dots” are higher than the FOMC median, something we had already surmised given his very public hawkish stance. On the policy path, he added that the “gradual” pace is just an expectation and warned the FOMC could change its mind. He worries that the Fed could get into a rut of 25 bp hikes per meeting. He, of course, rotates out of voting status next year, but will be replaced by three other kestrels, including Bullard, Mester, and George. Bullard: a shallower tightening path is likelycompared to 1990s or 2000s, said the St. Louis Fed president, dependent on the economy — steeper if it booms. G7 nations as a whole, however, are still a ways away from normalizing and near zero rates appear to be the norm there for at least a couple of years. The Fed will rely on the usual metrics for each hike, including whether the labor market becomes very tight. He sees the debate over the Fed role as healthy given the large one it played in response to the financial crisis. This is about par for moderate Bullard, again focusing more on the longer-term.

92% of economists surveyed expect a December Fed hike according to the latest WSJ survey published, barring a cataclysmic event of some sort. 5% see the Fed remaining on hold until March and 3% see ZIRP for longer than that. Back in October 64% of those surveyed saw a December hike. It seems Janet and company have done their guidance job well, backed up by the October payrolls report, though this leaves their credibility at stake on December 16 to follow through this time.

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI: October PPI is out Friday and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.2%) headline for the month with the core up 0.1% (median 0.1%) This follows respective September figures of -0.5% for the headline and -0.3% for the core. Declining oil prices have weighed on the various inflation measures over the year but they appear to have leveled off in recent months and even posted a small gain in October which should allow for headline increases.

US Retail Sales: October retail sales will be released today and the headline is expected to be up 0.4% (median 0.2%) with the ex-autos rate up 0.5% (median 0.4%). There is upside risk to the release from the firm vehicle sales data, improvements in consumer confidence and the bounce in construction hours worked that we have seen in October. This should be enough to offset the potential downside from slightly slower chain store sales.

US Business Inventories: The September business inventory data is out on Friday and should reveal an unchanged (median 0.1%) figure for inventories with shipments flat as well. This comes on the heels of respective August figures which had inventories unchanged and shipments down 0.6%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.37 from August, prior to that the ratio had held at 1.36 since March.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 13.11.2015 в 16:19.
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Старый 17.11.2015, 14:39   #99 (permalink)
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Date : 17th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 17th November 2015.




The AUD trades largely higher against other major pairs, after the RBA left its cash rate steady at 2.0%, meeting expectations. The RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes also maintained the shift to less-negative language about the Australian dollar (first seen in August) remarking that the currency was “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices” versus the previous guidance that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary”, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.

The EURUSD trades at a multi month low of 1.0643, as the USD makes fresh advances, with some safe-haven flows into the USD seen against the EUR in particular, following the terror attacks in Paris. The USD also trades higher versus NZD, the CHF and the CAD, as the Fed has indicated in recent weeks that it’s inclined to begin liftoff next month.

The USDJPY is holding onto recent gains , with the focus now on the BoJ, whose Thursdays Policy meeting outcome will be more uncertain following the GDP data report yesterday, putting Japan back into a technically recession.

The USDCAD is stronger following much weaker Canadian manufacturing data, weak energy prices are also against the CAD, as WTI crude flirted with the $40/bbl mark, and commodities generally weakened on the back of a broadly firmer dollar.



EURUSD, Daily

The contrasting policy stances of the ECB and Fed should maintain the EURUSD pair downward bias. The recent recovery attempts were short-lived, reversing from near the 1.0810’s raises the fears of a further decline toward the 1.0600 (round number) before a retest of the April lows at 1.0520.

FX pair: EURUSD
Supports: 1.0600/1.0520
Resistances: 1.0830/1.0900



GBPJPY, Daily (updated)

The GBPJPY has been trending higher and looks to continue the choppy recovery from the 180.60′s lows in the direction of 188 and 189.60-189.90′s further out. The current trending price move is also supported by the fact that the BoE has been hinting at a potential rate hike for some time, while the BoJ left policy unchanged, but the door remains open for QE, especially if growth falters.

FX pair: GBPJPY
Supports: 183.88
Resistances: 188.00

GBPUSD IN A SELL THE RALLIES MODE



Two days ago GBPUSD formed a narrow body candle at 1.5246 resistance. This bearish candle was followed by a down day and became a pivotal candle as a result. Today price has dipped below Friday’s pivotal candle low suggesting GBPUSD is in a sell the rallies mode in short term. This view is confirmed by the price moving below a rising trend line. Price is now trading at lower 4h Bollinger Bands and could therefore react higher from here. If this corrective move takes place we should look for short trade signals between 1.5190 and 1.5230 with a view of looking to cover the shorts near November 6th low. Targets 1: 1.5130 and target 2: 1.5040.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS



FX News Today

Canada’s consumer confidence improved to 58.3 in week ended November 13, according to the Nanos Economic Mood Index. That follows a 58.3 figure in the prior week and leaves the strongest level since the 58.4 seen in the week ending October 17. The index slumped to 53.6 in the final week of February and was a run of 52 and 53 readings from late July through mid-September. But confidence has returned (although the index remains below the peak 60.6 seen in mid-July of 2014), which could be expressed through retail sales gains in Q4 as consumer spend gas price savings and take advantage of low interest rates.

Canada existing home sale rose 1.8% m/m in October (seasonally adjusted) following the 2.1% drop in September. Not surprisingly, sales strength was led by growth in Vancouver and Toronto. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins expressed confidence in the bank’s call for a soft landing in the housing sector, and this report does not present a new challenge to her view.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren leaned towards a quicker hike given risks like faster growth in commercial real-estate in a lengthy FT.com article over the weekend. Basically it is the old unintended consequences theory that might be forcing a stretch for yield or returns in a zero rate environment, as employment and inflation goals come within reach. He also said that the recent October jobs report was “pretty unequivocally positive,” though he was less certain about nascent signs of wage growth. Rosengren did hint that the policy divergence with other countries was boosting the dollar, though offset somewhat by domestic demand. If that divergence grew too far, however, it could imply a more gradual U.S. policy path than otherwise. Note, Rosengren is number 8 in terms of policy signaling, according to a WSJ survey.

Bundesbank cautiously optimistic on growth. The German central bank said in its latest monthly report that the labour market is in a “very good condition”, and that “the positive labour-market and wage outlook, as well as the strong immigration, create the conditions for spirited consumption in the economy to continue and for overall growth in the medium term to exceed potential”.

Main Macro Events Today

UK October CPI (Core Consumer Price Index) is released today. No change is anticipated and the figure is expected to come in at 1%.

German ZEW investor sentiment was expected to improve slightly to 5.0 (median 6.1) from 1.9 but mainly on the back of hopes of further stimulus measures, so the number itself would not remove pressure on Draghi to act again. There also is the risk of a downside surprise, as late responses will have been impacted by the Paris attacks, so uncertainty is higher than usual, as the number will depend very much on when the answers came in.

US CPI: October CPI is out today and should show a 0.1% (median 0.2%) headline increase with an accompanying 0.1% (median 0.2%) increase for the core. This comes on the heels of a 0.2% headline decline in September and a 0.2% increase for the core in that month. Data in line with this forecast would leave the headline flat y/y and the core figure at 1.8% y/y.

US Industrial Production: October industrial production data should reveal an unchanged (median 0.1%) rate for the headline following the 0.2% decline in September and a 0.1% drop in August. The capacity utilization rate is expected to remain steady at 77.5% (median 77.5%) for a second month.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 17.11.2015 в 20:21.
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Старый 18.11.2015, 13:35   #100 (permalink)
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Date : 18th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th November 2015.


EURGBP TRADING AT SUPPORT



EURGBP, Daily

The pair is trading near the lower end of the a sideways move that started in March this year. This has been caused by a historical support from a multi-year sideways move between 2004 – 2007. Price has now reached a pivotal support created in the beginning of August this year. The range of this support area is 0.6937 and 0.6998 and has potential to turn the market higher.

As per Stochastics Oscillator EURGBP is oversold in weekly and daily time frames while in the 4h time frame it is just coming off the oversold area. The nearest daily resistance level (a low from November 5th) is currently at 0.7039, a level that coincides with the 30 period moving average while the upper end of the regression channel is not far either. We look for reversal signals at or inside the support range. In the case of successful long entry occurring the 0.7039 resistance works as a target one and 0.7108 as a target 2.

MACRO EVENTS & FOREX NEWS



FX News Today

ECB’s Mersch: No indication yet of economic pessimism after Paris. The Executive Board member said in a speech in Frankfurt that “we should shy away from drawing premature conclusions about whether the terror attacks will have any economic impact”, adding that “we have no indication of any economic pessimism as a result of the Paris attacks, let alone weaker hard data”. He warned that “doom-and-gloom talk is not warranted at this stage”. Clearly, with the attacks less than a week away, we don’t have any data yet that fully reflects the impact of the events and Mersch is right, it is too early to draw conclusions, even if markets seemed to stabilise relatively quickly. The fact that Bund futures dropped on the comments highlights though just how sensitive markets are to central bank remarks ahead of the December council meeting.

Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Chinese equities under pressure for a second day, after President Xi Jinping said the economy is facing “considerable downward pressure”. Japanese markets struggled to make headway as the Yen advanced. GBP is under pressure and the EUR is little changed against USD. Oil prices meanwhile are slightly higher.

US NAHB home builder sentiment index fell 3 points to 62 in November, from an upwardly revised 65 in October (was 64). It’s the first decline since May, but it’s from a post-recession high, with the 65 level the best since 2005. The current single family sales index dipped to 67 from 70. The future sales index dropped to 70 from 75. But the index of prospective buyers traffic rose to 48 from 47. Homebuilders continue to cite low inventories as problematic, while the stronger labor market and expanding economy are beneficial.

US industrial production slid 0.2% in October. Capacity fell to 77.5%. Those missed expectations. The 0.2% September decline in production was not revised, though August was nudged up to 0.1% from -0.1% previously. September capacity utilization was revised to 77.7% from 77.5%. Manufacturing improved last month, rising 0.4% after declines in June, August, and September. Motor vehicle/parts production picked up, rising 0.7%. Excluding vehicles/parts, manufacturing was up 0.4%. Machinery production increased 0.3%. Computer, electronics production was up 0.1%. Utilities slumped 2.5%, however, with Mining down 1.5%.

The 0.2% October U.S. CPI headline and core price gains both beat estimates, with little in the way of rounding errors from respective gains of 0.200% and 0.202%. We saw the expected small 0.3% energy price rise with a 0.2% food price gain, but medical care prices surged 0.8% alongside a firm 0.4% tobacco price rise.

Main Macro Events Today

US Housing Starts: October housing starts are out today and should reveal a 2.2% decline to a 1,180k (median 1,160k) headline from 1,206k in September.

US Building Permits: We expect permits to rise to 1,150k from 1,105k and completitions to edge up to 1,030k from 1,028k in September.

FOMC Minutes: markets focus on the Fed minutes to find out clues on whether the Fed is still likely to raise rates in December and what might be the rate hike path in 2016.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


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Последний раз редактировалось NSerega; 18.11.2015 в 13:51.
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